From ANONIMOUS:
It looks as tough I was right. Wasn't I?
You wrote that you " would not be surprised if Horta does not win also."Right now my question is whether you are surpised that he did in fact win by such a large majority as was mathematically expected?As I previously pointed out and on the basis of my view of the Timorese voters this is exactly how I expected it to happen.Any thoughts on how this might impact on the upcoming parliamentary elections in June?
Thank you for your comments. I value your opinion, please feel free to continue our constructive discussion. Below is my responce.
"É uma excelente escolha [Ó] Uma personalidade política e um resistente que dedicou toda a sua vida à causa da independência de Timor-Leste. É sem dúvida, um dos timorenses mais preparados para a presidência"
Diogo Freitas do Amaral
I quoted Diogo Freitas do Amaral a prominent Portuguese politician. He says of Horta that "It is an excellent choice. A political personality and resistant (leader) who dedicated his whole life to the cause of Timorese Independence”. It’s a great summary and no one denies that Ramos Horta deservingly is the winner and the President and thus I extend profound congratulations to him, after all he is my President also.
What has been important for Timor Leste is the act of democracy and the people of Timor Leste must also be congratulated in their peaceful conduct, Timor is definately not a "failed state". Another thing we all must consolidate in Timor Leste is the act of free speech, it is encouraging that people don’t share the same views as I do.
Jose Ramos Horta now has a great responsibility, and I hope you agree with me that as President-elect of Timor Leste he represents all Timorese including those who did not vote for him. The fact is, in face value Jose Ramos Horta was the most qualified and experienced politician/diplomat when in comparison to the other candidates. As I mentioned earlier he has a resume that would match any prominent politician leader in the world, he was the youngest person to address the security UN Security Council, a Nobel laureate, a Prime Minister, and now President.
It is crucial that Ramos Horta assumes the Presidency as the President of all people and not just those opposing FRETILIN and I am comforted by his own reconciliatory words that "It is going to be five years of hard work but I will work with Fretilin and make sure that the Fretilin leaders do not feel they have lost.” I think there were no losers in this Presidential elections.
The results are mathematically expected, but Democracy is politics and the will of the people is reflected in the results and not what we predict, hence I wasn’t willing to predict the winner but was reserved in saying that Horta was favourite.
The upcoming results will be interesting. But first here are my observations so far;
Jose Ramos Horta is the convenient choice. In the first round he only obtained 22% of votes. No other candidate was going to win the second round against Horta, it is evident that even if the other candidates opted to stay neutral Horta would still pick up their votes.
The voter is not anti FRETILIN as such but the voter is willing to try something new. Hence why in the first round Ramos Horta and the FRETILIN candidate did not dominate first round of elections, Lucia Lobato and especially Fernando Lasama did well beyond expectations.
The vote was regionalised in nature also, Xavier doing well in central as usual, Lamasa in Western, LuOlo in Eastern and Horta in Dili and surrounding districts. It was going to be difficult to see LuOlo picking up votes in the Central and Western districts with most candidates opting to support Horta
The individual perception of the candidate was also important. Ramos Horta is seen as an “independent”, he is the most qualified and experienced of all candidates. The Dili vote would have expressed this assertion.
The upcoming Legislative elections in my opinion will be dynamically different in nature. The vote will not rely heavily on an individual figure.
There will be the policies and programmes that will be presented to the people.
Possibly there will be issues such as the crisis that will become clearer as there will be the opportunity for open debate.
It would be interesting to see Xanana, Mari, Lasama, Mario in a national debate.
Significantly different is that Political Parties will rely on various figure/candidates to present themselves on a more personal level at a district and local level, here a candidate doesn’t represent all, but represents primarilly his/her constituency and represents all within a political party framework.
The CNRT vote is still relatively unknown. Are we to take Ramos Horta’s first round vote as that of CNRT’s? Will other political parties including FRETILIN lose their votes to CNRT? Not even Xanana has escaped tarnishing his image after the 2006 crisis, he will need to draw less attention to him in areas in the Eastern Districts.In the Western districts Xanana is still held in high regard.
We will see the emergence of PD in the western districts and in turn Timor Leste as a political force in the future, it has an opportunity to consolidate for the future or to rule with CNRT and risking losing prominence to CNRT. PD will need to act cautiously, joining CNRT in a coalition prematurely before the legislative election will run the risk of losing the gains made during the Presidential elections and it must be seen wether the vote was regionalised and would its candidates match those offered by ASDT, CNRT, FRETILIN or PSD.
The elections will decide the political future of Mari Alkatiri. If FRETILIN loses it will be difficult for him to retain the significant control he has over the political party, if FRETILIN win it will be likely he will be returned as Prime Minister should he accept the responsiblity. In the coming years there will be an emergence of FRETILIN’s younger generation gradually taking greater responsibilities within the party. There nees to be a re-energising of FRETILIN should it want to keep its standing within Timorese society, the electorate is definately different to the one in 2001/02.
Who will win the election? There will be no clear winner, but I think FRETILIN will relatively better that in the Presidential elections. What will happen is that there will be a coalition, between minor parties, CNRT will have much to gain in such a scenario. The Prime Minister will depend on whether FRETILIN wins outright or on which political party will gain most votes within a coalition.
Most likely Prime Minister; Xanana Gusmao, Mari Alkatiri, Estanislau Da Silva, Fernando Lasama or Mario Carrascalao.
11 May 2007
09 May 2007
Support for Ramos-Horta no guarantee of a win, say observers
Support for Ramos-Horta no guarantee of a win, say observers
Abdul Khalik, The Jakarta Post, Dili
Despite having the support of most of the original candidates in the Timor Leste presidential race, observers are still unconvinced that Prime Minister Jose Ramos-Horta will win the run-off election against Fretilin's Francisco Guterres `Olo'.
They are cautious about suggesting that support from the leaders of five of the six political parties that contested the first round of voting will translate into support from their members, given Fretilin's strong traditional influence at the village level and the different interests of leaders at the district level.
Julio Tomas Pinto, a political and military expert at the Peace University in Dili, said that if everything went as calculated, Ramos-Horta would win the election because of the massive support base of the Timor Leste political elites.
"If we base our calculations on the first-round election then Ramos-Horta's total votes plus the votes of the other candidates who support him reach over 50 percent. But this is politics, not mathematics. So, it remains to be seen whether supporters at the grassroots levels follow their leaders" he told The Jakarta Post on Tuesday.
Guterres and Ramos-Horta will face each other in the Wednesday run-off election. They garnered more than 29 percent and 22 percent of the vote in April's first round election, which eight candidates contested.
In third and fourth place were the Democratic Party's Fernandode Araujo and STDL's Francisco Xavier do Amaral with more than 18 percent and 12 percent respectively, while the only woman candidate, Lucia Maria Lobato of the Socialist Democrat Party (PSD), finished fifth, with close to 10 percent of the vote. Three other candidates -- Manuel Tilman, Avelino Maria Coelho da Silva and Joao Viegas Carrascalao -- managed to get less than 5 percent of the vote.
After intensive lobbying, Ramos-Horta managed to secure support from Lasama, do Amaral, Lucia Lobato, Maria Coelho da Silva and Joao Viegas Carrascalao while Manuel Tilman announced that he was throwing his support behind Guterres.
Do Amaral and Carracalao, who both attended Ramos-Horta's final campaign event in Dili on Sunday, announced in front of thousands of people their support for Ramos-Horta, while others sent their representatives to express their support for the prime minister.
"We should remember two things here in Timor Leste. One is that information at the highest level finds it difficult to reach the grassroots at the village levels because the country lacks information media, with most information passed on orally, opening the possibility of distortion. In big cities like Dili, people know new information quickly but not at the village level," Tomas Pinto said.
The second factor that could hinder the effectiveness of national leaders' advice to their followers, he added, was the fact that political leaders at the district level could have different interests.
"At several district and regencies, several figures from do Amaral's STDL and Lasama's Democrat Party, for instance, have vowed to support Guterres. Don't forget also the possibility that many people lost their motivation to vote as their candidates did not advance to the run off," Tomas Pinto said.
Another expert on Timor Leste Nugroho Katjasungkana agreed with Tomas Pinto that the race was still too close to decide, saying that followers could be different from their leaders.
"Another issue that separates do Amaral and Lasama from their supporters is racial sentiment. Many Timor Leste people want to have a native Timorese as their president, and have expressed their concern that Ramos-Horta is only half Timorese" he told the Post.
He argued that Fretilin still had traditional and militant supporters at the district and village levels, especially in three large districts in the western part of Timor Leste -- Baucau, Viqueque and Los Palos. Ten other districts are located in the eastern part of Timor Leste.
"Don't forget that most of the bureaucrats and village chiefs are Fretilin supporters," he said.
While several other experts on Timor Leste agreed that it would be a close race, most of them said that Ramos-Horta would win the election, considering his ability to attract young voters and the Democrat Party's followers following his order to stop the hunt for rebel leader Maj. Alfredo Reinado, a symbol of resistance of young Timorese, especially in 10 districts in the western part of the country.
"His position on Reinado and the ability to gain Lasama's and do Amaral's trust could be keys to winning the presidency," said a Dili-based observer, who asked not to be named.
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Abdul Khalik, The Jakarta Post, Dili
Despite having the support of most of the original candidates in the Timor Leste presidential race, observers are still unconvinced that Prime Minister Jose Ramos-Horta will win the run-off election against Fretilin's Francisco Guterres `Olo'.
They are cautious about suggesting that support from the leaders of five of the six political parties that contested the first round of voting will translate into support from their members, given Fretilin's strong traditional influence at the village level and the different interests of leaders at the district level.
Julio Tomas Pinto, a political and military expert at the Peace University in Dili, said that if everything went as calculated, Ramos-Horta would win the election because of the massive support base of the Timor Leste political elites.
"If we base our calculations on the first-round election then Ramos-Horta's total votes plus the votes of the other candidates who support him reach over 50 percent. But this is politics, not mathematics. So, it remains to be seen whether supporters at the grassroots levels follow their leaders" he told The Jakarta Post on Tuesday.
Guterres and Ramos-Horta will face each other in the Wednesday run-off election. They garnered more than 29 percent and 22 percent of the vote in April's first round election, which eight candidates contested.
In third and fourth place were the Democratic Party's Fernandode Araujo and STDL's Francisco Xavier do Amaral with more than 18 percent and 12 percent respectively, while the only woman candidate, Lucia Maria Lobato of the Socialist Democrat Party (PSD), finished fifth, with close to 10 percent of the vote. Three other candidates -- Manuel Tilman, Avelino Maria Coelho da Silva and Joao Viegas Carrascalao -- managed to get less than 5 percent of the vote.
After intensive lobbying, Ramos-Horta managed to secure support from Lasama, do Amaral, Lucia Lobato, Maria Coelho da Silva and Joao Viegas Carrascalao while Manuel Tilman announced that he was throwing his support behind Guterres.
Do Amaral and Carracalao, who both attended Ramos-Horta's final campaign event in Dili on Sunday, announced in front of thousands of people their support for Ramos-Horta, while others sent their representatives to express their support for the prime minister.
"We should remember two things here in Timor Leste. One is that information at the highest level finds it difficult to reach the grassroots at the village levels because the country lacks information media, with most information passed on orally, opening the possibility of distortion. In big cities like Dili, people know new information quickly but not at the village level," Tomas Pinto said.
The second factor that could hinder the effectiveness of national leaders' advice to their followers, he added, was the fact that political leaders at the district level could have different interests.
"At several district and regencies, several figures from do Amaral's STDL and Lasama's Democrat Party, for instance, have vowed to support Guterres. Don't forget also the possibility that many people lost their motivation to vote as their candidates did not advance to the run off," Tomas Pinto said.
Another expert on Timor Leste Nugroho Katjasungkana agreed with Tomas Pinto that the race was still too close to decide, saying that followers could be different from their leaders.
"Another issue that separates do Amaral and Lasama from their supporters is racial sentiment. Many Timor Leste people want to have a native Timorese as their president, and have expressed their concern that Ramos-Horta is only half Timorese" he told the Post.
He argued that Fretilin still had traditional and militant supporters at the district and village levels, especially in three large districts in the western part of Timor Leste -- Baucau, Viqueque and Los Palos. Ten other districts are located in the eastern part of Timor Leste.
"Don't forget that most of the bureaucrats and village chiefs are Fretilin supporters," he said.
While several other experts on Timor Leste agreed that it would be a close race, most of them said that Ramos-Horta would win the election, considering his ability to attract young voters and the Democrat Party's followers following his order to stop the hunt for rebel leader Maj. Alfredo Reinado, a symbol of resistance of young Timorese, especially in 10 districts in the western part of the country.
"His position on Reinado and the ability to gain Lasama's and do Amaral's trust could be keys to winning the presidency," said a Dili-based observer, who asked not to be named.
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Responce
This article is, in my view, a mix of interesting points and contradictions.There seems to be several contradictions within this article as well as with some of your previous articles.Regarding the interesting bits you wrote and I quote “What will be obvious is that if Ramos Horta wins the second round it won’t be because people want Ramos Horta to win, it will be the case that they don’t want LuOlo a FRETILIN candidate to win. “ Were you more intent on withdrawing all merit from Ramos Horta in the event of his victory or were you actually trying to point out that people people's dissatisfaction with the ruling party would be so great that regardless of the challenger they would be more interested in ensuring Luolo defeat? Either way can you appreciate that this is in fact the most damning statement anyone could make of Luolo and Fretilin?
I think it is obvious that no candidate won the popular vote such was the result of the first elections. LuOlo did well by finishing first in what was a mathematically impossible to attain a majority in the first round. What I insist is that during the first round the results clearly showed the votes was voted within regionalised lines. When I say if Horta wins it wont be because Ramos Horta popularity but it is because of the support gained from the other candidates. With existing rifts caused by the Lorosae, Loromonu issue an individual from Viqueque may well struggle in the Western Districts, hence I say that if a low voter turnout in the Western Districts will favour LuOlo and a low voter turnout in the Eastern District will favour Horta. It is my view that there will be a good turnout as shown by people’s embracement of Democracy.
Thus, intentionally or not (most likely not) you qualified an eventual victory by Ramos Horta as being in fact a popular vote against FRETILIN when you wrote “ they don’t want LuOlo a FRETILIN candidate to win”.
Look at it this way Xavier has on several occasions criticised Horta because of his race (mestico Timorese), however he has a personal dissatisfaction towards FRETILIN because FRETILIN would not recognise him as the “proclaimer of Independence”, most candidates even if they don’t like Horta they will urge people to vote for him even if they had reservations.
As the for the vote I still insist that it is taken on an individual perspective and based on regionalised allegiances and not on party lines. Possibly why the other candidates did not use party symbols as they may not want the voter to vote on outside the confines of the individual character rather than squarely facing off to FRETILIN on political party lines.
You proceed by writing: “If LuOlo wins it will be because of the rural vote, where access to information is limited and heavily reliant on grassroots campaigning, as the FRETILIN candidate this will give him some advantage.”Does this mean that rural voters are prone to making less informed decisions due to their limited access to information and for that matter Luolo stands to benefit mostly because of Fretilin's developed party machine rather than individual merit of the candidates? In other words more prone to being influenced by party propaganda?
If you ever read or follow the media in Timor Leste certainly you would recognised the bias and sensationalised reporting. Propaganda printed in newspapers like STL or Timor Post would have affected the voter in Dili into making misinformed rather than less informed decisions. In the districts any candidate would rely on organisational structure to disseminate information, this is where the advantage LuOlo has, its mere consequential that FRETILIN has this advantage.
In terms of merit I don’t think Horta deserves more to be President than any other candidate. Many people would have certainly voted more on impression of the individual rather than on merit. People have the impression that Horta is better qualified for this position, it is a general view in Dili if you talk to people.
As for the contradictions:Isn't this statement also contradicting some of your previous articles in which you argued the existence of a well understood distinction between presidential and parliamentary elections?You have previously argued that in the first the vote would be more influenced along the lines of people's preferences of candidates and perhaps on the basis of regional differences rather than of party preferences which you said would be the case in the latter thus allowing the possibility of a Fretilin victory then. Well, if the current quoted statement is now right would that not mean that this presidential election can very well be taken as a barometer of the voters' general mood in the upcoming parliamentary elections, something previously dismissed by you?
In my opinion the legislative election will be different, mainly because people will still judge the individual.
Then you state that “...there is no certainty that either candidate is assured of victory, fair enough Horta is favourite but he will need to acquire all the votes of the other losing candidates, which is improbable.” However, doesn't Pomez Ruiz' opinion that "Most people already made up their minds in the first election," which you echoed in your own words mean that Ramos Horta is almost certain to win the election given that 72.11% of the voters in the first round already made up their minds that they did not want a Fretilin candidate for president and aditionally those votes have already been pledged to Horta even if only by the loosing candidates in which those 72% placed their trust?
The fact is around 78% also made their minds that they didn’t want Ramos Horta to be President, as I say Horta is favourite as he was favourite in the first round to at least finish first. I would prefer to wait for the results itself, but I continue to say that I would not be surprised if Horta does not win also.
I certainly would like to hear your views on the issues I have just raised.
Good points raised though. They are relevant, I am taking a more open minded approach to this elections.
I think it is obvious that no candidate won the popular vote such was the result of the first elections. LuOlo did well by finishing first in what was a mathematically impossible to attain a majority in the first round. What I insist is that during the first round the results clearly showed the votes was voted within regionalised lines. When I say if Horta wins it wont be because Ramos Horta popularity but it is because of the support gained from the other candidates. With existing rifts caused by the Lorosae, Loromonu issue an individual from Viqueque may well struggle in the Western Districts, hence I say that if a low voter turnout in the Western Districts will favour LuOlo and a low voter turnout in the Eastern District will favour Horta. It is my view that there will be a good turnout as shown by people’s embracement of Democracy.
Thus, intentionally or not (most likely not) you qualified an eventual victory by Ramos Horta as being in fact a popular vote against FRETILIN when you wrote “ they don’t want LuOlo a FRETILIN candidate to win”.
Look at it this way Xavier has on several occasions criticised Horta because of his race (mestico Timorese), however he has a personal dissatisfaction towards FRETILIN because FRETILIN would not recognise him as the “proclaimer of Independence”, most candidates even if they don’t like Horta they will urge people to vote for him even if they had reservations.
As the for the vote I still insist that it is taken on an individual perspective and based on regionalised allegiances and not on party lines. Possibly why the other candidates did not use party symbols as they may not want the voter to vote on outside the confines of the individual character rather than squarely facing off to FRETILIN on political party lines.
You proceed by writing: “If LuOlo wins it will be because of the rural vote, where access to information is limited and heavily reliant on grassroots campaigning, as the FRETILIN candidate this will give him some advantage.”Does this mean that rural voters are prone to making less informed decisions due to their limited access to information and for that matter Luolo stands to benefit mostly because of Fretilin's developed party machine rather than individual merit of the candidates? In other words more prone to being influenced by party propaganda?
If you ever read or follow the media in Timor Leste certainly you would recognised the bias and sensationalised reporting. Propaganda printed in newspapers like STL or Timor Post would have affected the voter in Dili into making misinformed rather than less informed decisions. In the districts any candidate would rely on organisational structure to disseminate information, this is where the advantage LuOlo has, its mere consequential that FRETILIN has this advantage.
In terms of merit I don’t think Horta deserves more to be President than any other candidate. Many people would have certainly voted more on impression of the individual rather than on merit. People have the impression that Horta is better qualified for this position, it is a general view in Dili if you talk to people.
As for the contradictions:Isn't this statement also contradicting some of your previous articles in which you argued the existence of a well understood distinction between presidential and parliamentary elections?You have previously argued that in the first the vote would be more influenced along the lines of people's preferences of candidates and perhaps on the basis of regional differences rather than of party preferences which you said would be the case in the latter thus allowing the possibility of a Fretilin victory then. Well, if the current quoted statement is now right would that not mean that this presidential election can very well be taken as a barometer of the voters' general mood in the upcoming parliamentary elections, something previously dismissed by you?
In my opinion the legislative election will be different, mainly because people will still judge the individual.
Then you state that “...there is no certainty that either candidate is assured of victory, fair enough Horta is favourite but he will need to acquire all the votes of the other losing candidates, which is improbable.” However, doesn't Pomez Ruiz' opinion that "Most people already made up their minds in the first election," which you echoed in your own words mean that Ramos Horta is almost certain to win the election given that 72.11% of the voters in the first round already made up their minds that they did not want a Fretilin candidate for president and aditionally those votes have already been pledged to Horta even if only by the loosing candidates in which those 72% placed their trust?
The fact is around 78% also made their minds that they didn’t want Ramos Horta to be President, as I say Horta is favourite as he was favourite in the first round to at least finish first. I would prefer to wait for the results itself, but I continue to say that I would not be surprised if Horta does not win also.
I certainly would like to hear your views on the issues I have just raised.
Good points raised though. They are relevant, I am taking a more open minded approach to this elections.
07 May 2007
Final Points
By Thursday morning we will have a clear picture of who will be the next President of Timor Leste. Ramos Horta's final campaign in Dili shows that he still commands a lot of support in Dili. With around 3,000 supporters it was a strong showing compared to LuOlo's campaign in Dili which only attracted a mere 500 people.
Horta proclaimed that "victory is assured" amongst those present were the members of the opposition and the other candidates who have thrown their support behind Horta. There wouldn't be many people arguing against Ramos Horta as the favourite and if he was referring to Dili victory a certainty. What will be obvious is that if Ramos Horta wins the second round it won’t be because people want Ramos Horta to win, it will be the case that they don’t want LuOlo a FRETILIN candidate to win. The underlying fact stemming from this elections is that no candidate came out of the first round with a clear majority over another, whoever will be President will not claim the popular vote.
However the votes from the central and western districts of Timor will be crucial in deciding the winner, LuOlo being from Viqueque may influence the voter.
Voter turnout will be crucial a low turnout in the Eastern district will favour Horta where a lower turnout in the Western districts favouring LuOlo.
If LuOlo wins it will be because of the rural vote, where access to information is limited and heavily reliant on grassroots campaigning, as the FRETILIN candidate this will give him some advantage.
Having said this there is no certainty that either candidate is assured of victory, fair enough Horta is favourite but he will need to acquire all the votes of the other losing candidates, which is improbable.
The general feeling is that most people in Timor Leste have made up their minds on who they will vote for and the campaign rallies won’t be a true reflection of the voting reality.
Whatever the result it will be a step forward in resolving the crisis and establishing the scene for an intriguing Legislative elections.
The article below is a well written article about the general feelings the public have about the second round of voting.
Source: Agence France-Presse (AFP)
Date: 06 May 2007
Save Food more important than East Timor campaign
DILI, May 6, 2007 (AFP) - Pius Soares sits idly under a tree in a refugee camp with his friends. Like thousands of East Timorese waiting to return home after last year's deadly violence, he has time on his hands.
How he uses that time does not extend, however, to attending the political rallies staged not far from the camp in Dili as East Timor's two presidential candidates slug it out ahead of Wednesday's election.
"It is more important for us to look for food," the 34-year-old said.
"All we want is that security is re-established by the new president, so we can all return to our homes."
His friend Carlito agreed, adding he was afraid to attend the rallies held by the powerful Fretilin party in case they turned violent.
"Not only are we not making any money (by living in the camps), but we also risk dying in vain (by attending)," said Carlito, who gave only one name.
Apathy is running high in the troubled nation ahead of the runoff vote for the presidency, the first since East Timor won independence in 2002 after 24 years of Indonesian occupation.
Colourful posters and banners are plastered all over the capital promoting Nobel laureate Jose Ramos-Horta, the current prime minister, and his Fretilin rival Francisco "Lu-Olo" Guterres.
But their rallies are failing to draw large crowds.
"For many, especially in the regions, it is a lack of information about the second round," said Joao Mariano Saldanha, head of the Timor Institute for Development Studies.
"For others it is simply the fact that both candidates are already in the government but have so far failed to take the country out of turmoil."
Just 500 people turned up for a Guterres rally in a field in the capital Saturday, mostly supporters of Fretilin, the resistance movement that fought for independence from Portugal and later Indonesia.
"For Dili, this is nothing," EU observer Javier Pomes Ruiz said.
About 300 people began to gather Sunday on a football field in Dili to hear Ramos-Horta speak. Minibuses with supporters using loudspeakers drove through streets trying to drum up attendance.
Pomes Ruiz said the size of the rallies was unlikely to be reflected at the ballot box come polling day.
"Most people already made up their minds in the first election," he said of the April 9 poll when thousands queued for hours to cast their votes.
Guterres and Ramos-Horta are contesting the runoff because neither won a majority in that first round vote.
Tension has been simmering in the country since ethnic violence erupted in May last year, killing 37 people and forcing 150,000 to flee their homes.
Several thousand foreign peacekeepers were brought in to restore calm and remain on alert amid fears of unrest.
Soares said that despite his disinterest in the campaign, he would vote on Wednesday in the hope the new president restored security.
He and his family of six have been too scared to return home to Audian, a volatile area of Dili since the violence.
Carlito, who like most other refugees has been unable to work since fleeing to the camp, said job creation was also essential.
Asked who they would vote for, they replied in unison: "It's a secret."
Across town at another refugee camp, Anicetto and his friends played cards under the shade of a tarpaulin.
They have also refused to attend rallies or listen to the speeches.
"Why should we go to the campaign rallies only to listen to them insulting each other?" asked Anicetto to nods of approval from fellow players.
But they too will cast their votes. "I hope, whoever wins, that he will be a good driver in steering this nation," one said. "Like a car, of course the other components count, like the wheel, the engine and the brakes, but if the driver is not good and cannot fix them, then it is futile."
bs/tha/km AFP 060744 GMT 05 07
Horta proclaimed that "victory is assured" amongst those present were the members of the opposition and the other candidates who have thrown their support behind Horta. There wouldn't be many people arguing against Ramos Horta as the favourite and if he was referring to Dili victory a certainty. What will be obvious is that if Ramos Horta wins the second round it won’t be because people want Ramos Horta to win, it will be the case that they don’t want LuOlo a FRETILIN candidate to win. The underlying fact stemming from this elections is that no candidate came out of the first round with a clear majority over another, whoever will be President will not claim the popular vote.
However the votes from the central and western districts of Timor will be crucial in deciding the winner, LuOlo being from Viqueque may influence the voter.
Voter turnout will be crucial a low turnout in the Eastern district will favour Horta where a lower turnout in the Western districts favouring LuOlo.
If LuOlo wins it will be because of the rural vote, where access to information is limited and heavily reliant on grassroots campaigning, as the FRETILIN candidate this will give him some advantage.
Having said this there is no certainty that either candidate is assured of victory, fair enough Horta is favourite but he will need to acquire all the votes of the other losing candidates, which is improbable.
The general feeling is that most people in Timor Leste have made up their minds on who they will vote for and the campaign rallies won’t be a true reflection of the voting reality.
Whatever the result it will be a step forward in resolving the crisis and establishing the scene for an intriguing Legislative elections.
The article below is a well written article about the general feelings the public have about the second round of voting.
Source: Agence France-Presse (AFP)
Date: 06 May 2007
Save Food more important than East Timor campaign
DILI, May 6, 2007 (AFP) - Pius Soares sits idly under a tree in a refugee camp with his friends. Like thousands of East Timorese waiting to return home after last year's deadly violence, he has time on his hands.
How he uses that time does not extend, however, to attending the political rallies staged not far from the camp in Dili as East Timor's two presidential candidates slug it out ahead of Wednesday's election.
"It is more important for us to look for food," the 34-year-old said.
"All we want is that security is re-established by the new president, so we can all return to our homes."
His friend Carlito agreed, adding he was afraid to attend the rallies held by the powerful Fretilin party in case they turned violent.
"Not only are we not making any money (by living in the camps), but we also risk dying in vain (by attending)," said Carlito, who gave only one name.
Apathy is running high in the troubled nation ahead of the runoff vote for the presidency, the first since East Timor won independence in 2002 after 24 years of Indonesian occupation.
Colourful posters and banners are plastered all over the capital promoting Nobel laureate Jose Ramos-Horta, the current prime minister, and his Fretilin rival Francisco "Lu-Olo" Guterres.
But their rallies are failing to draw large crowds.
"For many, especially in the regions, it is a lack of information about the second round," said Joao Mariano Saldanha, head of the Timor Institute for Development Studies.
"For others it is simply the fact that both candidates are already in the government but have so far failed to take the country out of turmoil."
Just 500 people turned up for a Guterres rally in a field in the capital Saturday, mostly supporters of Fretilin, the resistance movement that fought for independence from Portugal and later Indonesia.
"For Dili, this is nothing," EU observer Javier Pomes Ruiz said.
About 300 people began to gather Sunday on a football field in Dili to hear Ramos-Horta speak. Minibuses with supporters using loudspeakers drove through streets trying to drum up attendance.
Pomes Ruiz said the size of the rallies was unlikely to be reflected at the ballot box come polling day.
"Most people already made up their minds in the first election," he said of the April 9 poll when thousands queued for hours to cast their votes.
Guterres and Ramos-Horta are contesting the runoff because neither won a majority in that first round vote.
Tension has been simmering in the country since ethnic violence erupted in May last year, killing 37 people and forcing 150,000 to flee their homes.
Several thousand foreign peacekeepers were brought in to restore calm and remain on alert amid fears of unrest.
Soares said that despite his disinterest in the campaign, he would vote on Wednesday in the hope the new president restored security.
He and his family of six have been too scared to return home to Audian, a volatile area of Dili since the violence.
Carlito, who like most other refugees has been unable to work since fleeing to the camp, said job creation was also essential.
Asked who they would vote for, they replied in unison: "It's a secret."
Across town at another refugee camp, Anicetto and his friends played cards under the shade of a tarpaulin.
They have also refused to attend rallies or listen to the speeches.
"Why should we go to the campaign rallies only to listen to them insulting each other?" asked Anicetto to nods of approval from fellow players.
But they too will cast their votes. "I hope, whoever wins, that he will be a good driver in steering this nation," one said. "Like a car, of course the other components count, like the wheel, the engine and the brakes, but if the driver is not good and cannot fix them, then it is futile."
bs/tha/km AFP 060744 GMT 05 07
Responce
Are you in Timor or outside of Timor?
"I have been in Timor for 5 years now.'
Did you follow the presidential debate between Horta and Lu Olo?
"Yes I did, like many others I was surprised by LuOlo's performance."
What's you opinion on that?
"I have posted a summary of the debate earlier, I share the same opinion as the author.
I have been reading reports from Horta's and Lu Olo's camp. Obviously either one of them claimed victory during this debate. Sadly no independent media reported anything on this important debate.
"I think the debate speaks for itself, there was no need to claim victory on anyone’s part."
As for any spelling errors, I couldn't care less. I understand the message you put across anyway. Good work. Keep up with the analysis.
"This is a blog, I am not writing an academic essay so I am not going to care about minor spelling errors that escape my attention. As I said anyone finding spelling errors can put it to my attention."
"It’s good that you understand what I am putting forward."
"Thanks for your support."
"I have been in Timor for 5 years now.'
Did you follow the presidential debate between Horta and Lu Olo?
"Yes I did, like many others I was surprised by LuOlo's performance."
What's you opinion on that?
"I have posted a summary of the debate earlier, I share the same opinion as the author.
I have been reading reports from Horta's and Lu Olo's camp. Obviously either one of them claimed victory during this debate. Sadly no independent media reported anything on this important debate.
"I think the debate speaks for itself, there was no need to claim victory on anyone’s part."
As for any spelling errors, I couldn't care less. I understand the message you put across anyway. Good work. Keep up with the analysis.
"This is a blog, I am not writing an academic essay so I am not going to care about minor spelling errors that escape my attention. As I said anyone finding spelling errors can put it to my attention."
"It’s good that you understand what I am putting forward."
"Thanks for your support."
04 May 2007
Responce to Anonymous
"political manuvering has taken precedent"
Corrections:
1- Manouvering and not manuvering
2- Has taken PRECEDENCE not precedent.
Anyway, after sometime reading your articles I've just come to conclude that your so called "analysis" are nothing but another component of political propaganda produced by Fretilin's well developed party machine you keep reminding us about.
By the way, no amount of wishful thinking can change the reality and all signs are clear in pointing out that:
1- Despite its well developed "party machine" Fretilin faired poorly in the first round election. This clearly shows that the electorate is ready for an alternative to Fretilin.
It was probably not the ideal result for FRETILIN but nonetheless it was still positive. With 8 candidates mathematically it would of been close to impossible to win the first round of votes, so relevant a factor that if Xanana was to run again for the Presidency even he would have not won the first round (what would such a result mean since he tallied 80% in the 2002 elections?).
It is important for Timor Leste to always have an alternative to FRETILIN .Timor Leste needs constructive opposition not the type of opposition we have seen in the last four years. Whoever ends up being the opposition it will be up to the people to decide.
2- Although Ramos-Horta has no "party machine" as you pointed out he managed to 'grab' 88 thousand votes. That's aproximately (APPROXIMATELY “its pointless isn’t it”) 24 thousand votes less than Luolo/Fretilin.
Ramos Horta has extensive media networks both local and international, probably what had helped him do well in Dili. Ramos Horta was only 11,000 votes away from becoming third behind Lasama. Without the Dili vote he would have struggled to come second. In a closely contested elections 24,000 votes is significant.
There are two points to take note of here.
One is that Fretilin performed poorly and has fallen out of favour with the Timorese people despite having the most developed party structure, machine, resources not to mention the history.
Here you describe well the “party machine” that is FRETILIN.
It is of my opinion that the Legislative elections will be the best testament as to whether FRETILIN is out of favour with the Timorese people. Such is the differences in the dynamics of the Presidential and Legislative elections, feel free to read my past posts on why this is so.
The other point is that Ramos-Horta was in fact the big winner in the first round SINCE being an independent without a "PARTY MACHINE" he came a close second. Now given that he was really running against the historical party FRETILIN (not just Luolo) then his results must be seen as a major success obtained by an INDIVIDUAL against such an historic ORGANIZATION.
As I have mentioned earlier the dynamics of the Presidential elections is different to that of the Legislative. Here the voter also takes into consideration two factors the individual qualities of a candidate and also which district the candidate is from. In terms of individual persona and qualifications, LuOlo as an individual comes from humble beginnings without a high profile as Ramos Horta, a Noble Laureate with unquestionable qualifications supported by Xanana (CNRT), some members of the clergy and most local and international media outlets still was unable to lead first round of votes. Note that Xanana won in 2002 without a “Party Machine”.
Horta mentioned that everywhere he went he was welcomed he mentioned many districts, however he fared really poorly in the districts outside of Dili bar 2. The district vote was a regionalised vote, see my previous postings. A positive is that Horta did receive the support of most other candidates, if Horta wins will he be the President of the people or President of the current opposition such will be his reliance to repay the support he received.
So lets face, unless something goes seriously wrong with the electoral mechanisms and procedures then Ramos-Horta will undoubtedly emerge as the next President of RDTL after May 9. No amount of wishful thinking or misguided analysis will change that.
Looking for excuses already, this sentence is unconstructive, the electoral process was under great scrutiny and will come under greater scrutiny in the second round. Given the CNE was obviously not impartial and prejudicial to LuOlo, the presence of Independent observers both National and International observers are present, to manipulate the result is highly unlikely.
Every Timorese must have faith in the electoral system. Given the circumstances the Presidential elections was a success, the election is no way as controversial as the Nigerian Presidential vote.
I share the same opinion that Horta is favourite but in a democracy the vote is what counts at the end of the day no candidate is assured a victory, therefore I would not be surprised if LuOlo wins. The Presidential election is still very much up for grabs.
If you decide not to allow this comment to be made public that's also fine with me. So long as you read it.
I should start posting the offensive comments directed at Ramos Horta, Xanana, LuOlo and Mari Alkatiri. Anyway, give me a break if you care to read the previous posting I have exchanged views with other people who do not share the same opinion. You shouldn’t jump to conclusions just because someone has a different view to yours there is no need to be taken personally and be so defensive, I freely publish my opinion why not respond to yours.
Feel free to correct my spelling errors. So long as you understand what I write.
Corrections:
1- Manouvering and not manuvering
2- Has taken PRECEDENCE not precedent.
Anyway, after sometime reading your articles I've just come to conclude that your so called "analysis" are nothing but another component of political propaganda produced by Fretilin's well developed party machine you keep reminding us about.
By the way, no amount of wishful thinking can change the reality and all signs are clear in pointing out that:
1- Despite its well developed "party machine" Fretilin faired poorly in the first round election. This clearly shows that the electorate is ready for an alternative to Fretilin.
It was probably not the ideal result for FRETILIN but nonetheless it was still positive. With 8 candidates mathematically it would of been close to impossible to win the first round of votes, so relevant a factor that if Xanana was to run again for the Presidency even he would have not won the first round (what would such a result mean since he tallied 80% in the 2002 elections?).
It is important for Timor Leste to always have an alternative to FRETILIN .Timor Leste needs constructive opposition not the type of opposition we have seen in the last four years. Whoever ends up being the opposition it will be up to the people to decide.
2- Although Ramos-Horta has no "party machine" as you pointed out he managed to 'grab' 88 thousand votes. That's aproximately (APPROXIMATELY “its pointless isn’t it”) 24 thousand votes less than Luolo/Fretilin.
Ramos Horta has extensive media networks both local and international, probably what had helped him do well in Dili. Ramos Horta was only 11,000 votes away from becoming third behind Lasama. Without the Dili vote he would have struggled to come second. In a closely contested elections 24,000 votes is significant.
There are two points to take note of here.
One is that Fretilin performed poorly and has fallen out of favour with the Timorese people despite having the most developed party structure, machine, resources not to mention the history.
Here you describe well the “party machine” that is FRETILIN.
It is of my opinion that the Legislative elections will be the best testament as to whether FRETILIN is out of favour with the Timorese people. Such is the differences in the dynamics of the Presidential and Legislative elections, feel free to read my past posts on why this is so.
The other point is that Ramos-Horta was in fact the big winner in the first round SINCE being an independent without a "PARTY MACHINE" he came a close second. Now given that he was really running against the historical party FRETILIN (not just Luolo) then his results must be seen as a major success obtained by an INDIVIDUAL against such an historic ORGANIZATION.
As I have mentioned earlier the dynamics of the Presidential elections is different to that of the Legislative. Here the voter also takes into consideration two factors the individual qualities of a candidate and also which district the candidate is from. In terms of individual persona and qualifications, LuOlo as an individual comes from humble beginnings without a high profile as Ramos Horta, a Noble Laureate with unquestionable qualifications supported by Xanana (CNRT), some members of the clergy and most local and international media outlets still was unable to lead first round of votes. Note that Xanana won in 2002 without a “Party Machine”.
Horta mentioned that everywhere he went he was welcomed he mentioned many districts, however he fared really poorly in the districts outside of Dili bar 2. The district vote was a regionalised vote, see my previous postings. A positive is that Horta did receive the support of most other candidates, if Horta wins will he be the President of the people or President of the current opposition such will be his reliance to repay the support he received.
So lets face, unless something goes seriously wrong with the electoral mechanisms and procedures then Ramos-Horta will undoubtedly emerge as the next President of RDTL after May 9. No amount of wishful thinking or misguided analysis will change that.
Looking for excuses already, this sentence is unconstructive, the electoral process was under great scrutiny and will come under greater scrutiny in the second round. Given the CNE was obviously not impartial and prejudicial to LuOlo, the presence of Independent observers both National and International observers are present, to manipulate the result is highly unlikely.
Every Timorese must have faith in the electoral system. Given the circumstances the Presidential elections was a success, the election is no way as controversial as the Nigerian Presidential vote.
I share the same opinion that Horta is favourite but in a democracy the vote is what counts at the end of the day no candidate is assured a victory, therefore I would not be surprised if LuOlo wins. The Presidential election is still very much up for grabs.
If you decide not to allow this comment to be made public that's also fine with me. So long as you read it.
I should start posting the offensive comments directed at Ramos Horta, Xanana, LuOlo and Mari Alkatiri. Anyway, give me a break if you care to read the previous posting I have exchanged views with other people who do not share the same opinion. You shouldn’t jump to conclusions just because someone has a different view to yours there is no need to be taken personally and be so defensive, I freely publish my opinion why not respond to yours.
Feel free to correct my spelling errors. So long as you understand what I write.
02 May 2007
Round 2
It’s only 8 days until the next round of the Presidential election to be contested between Jose Ramos Horta and Franciso Guterres “Lu Olo”.
Approaches in campaigning for the second round have changed and political manuvering has taken precedent over mass rallies. Horta has a slight upper hand by receiving the support of five of the previous candidates importantly that of Francisco Xavier, Lucia Lobato and Fernando Lasama all of whom polled well in the first round of voting. Lu Olo has gained the support of one candidate Manuel Tilman. In light of this many consider Jose Ramos Horta as favourite to win the second round of voting, however there are other factors which will also play a crucial role in deciding the outcome of second round voting ensuring this round will be closer than what most people expect.
Voter turnout will certainly be a decisive factor, it is already explained very well in http://raiketak.wordpress.com/. A lower turnout will favour Lu-Olo. FRETILIN is well organised and will rally their sympathisers to vote for LuOlo again whereas Horta does not have a party machine to work for him relying on the work of the minor parties. It is also evident that both LuOlo and Horta do not appeal to some voters who will decide not to participate in the vote.
An important facet of democracy is that no vote is guaranteed, even with the support of the candidates it does not necessarily mean Horta will get all the votes of the losing candidates. The fact is Horta is not that popular in the districts as his supporters thought, having done well below expectation. Having said this LuOlo will need to attain more votes in the Western districts of Timor where voters have a tendency to vote on regionalised lines.
In terms of campaigning the candidates have concentrated on making contact with the electoral on a personal level. Allegations has also been the feature campaigning for both candidates, Horta blaming FRETILIN for violence while FRETILIN has countered with allegations that Horta is similar to Suharto.
Ramos Horta has also publicly called off the search for renegade Alfredo Reinaldo, although no formal request has been made by the Timorese government to the International forces to halt current operations (http://bulletin.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=264317&print=true). This move is seen as a political manoeuvre and a move to win the support of Fernando Lasama whose PD party support Alfredo. However it is unproven as to how much influence Alfredo has had in this election so far, it is obviously a gamble that exemplifies Horta’s inconsistencies and inability during the crisis to finding a universally accepted solution to the prevailing issues.
What has certainly been pleasing is the balanced International media reporting coming from Timor Leste. During the crisis and the first round of elections the media were overly critical of the FRETILIN leadership and shied away from reporting criticisms pointed towards Horta. Where Ramos Horta enjoyed a literal monopoly of the International media in the first round of Presidential elections, the second round has seen more consistency where reporting favouring Horta and LuOlo are both published.
An important part of the election campaign was the debate between Horta and LuOlo. Those following the TVTL televised debate were surprised at LuOlo outperforming Ramos Horta. It was also surprising that Horta called a press conference straight after the debate and attacked FRETILIN possibly trying counter obvious gains made by LuOlo in the debate. Horta is well known in Timor Leste for his short temper.
Because of Horta’s reliance on the other candidates he will be compromised and will be expected to work within the interests of the other candidates and political parties if elected President. Whereas LuOlo being a senior member of FRETILIN will have more leverage to carry out his works independently.
There is no denying Horta is favoured to win the elections but there would be no surprise if LuOlo ends up being the next President of Timor Leste.
Approaches in campaigning for the second round have changed and political manuvering has taken precedent over mass rallies. Horta has a slight upper hand by receiving the support of five of the previous candidates importantly that of Francisco Xavier, Lucia Lobato and Fernando Lasama all of whom polled well in the first round of voting. Lu Olo has gained the support of one candidate Manuel Tilman. In light of this many consider Jose Ramos Horta as favourite to win the second round of voting, however there are other factors which will also play a crucial role in deciding the outcome of second round voting ensuring this round will be closer than what most people expect.
Voter turnout will certainly be a decisive factor, it is already explained very well in http://raiketak.wordpress.com/. A lower turnout will favour Lu-Olo. FRETILIN is well organised and will rally their sympathisers to vote for LuOlo again whereas Horta does not have a party machine to work for him relying on the work of the minor parties. It is also evident that both LuOlo and Horta do not appeal to some voters who will decide not to participate in the vote.
An important facet of democracy is that no vote is guaranteed, even with the support of the candidates it does not necessarily mean Horta will get all the votes of the losing candidates. The fact is Horta is not that popular in the districts as his supporters thought, having done well below expectation. Having said this LuOlo will need to attain more votes in the Western districts of Timor where voters have a tendency to vote on regionalised lines.
In terms of campaigning the candidates have concentrated on making contact with the electoral on a personal level. Allegations has also been the feature campaigning for both candidates, Horta blaming FRETILIN for violence while FRETILIN has countered with allegations that Horta is similar to Suharto.
Ramos Horta has also publicly called off the search for renegade Alfredo Reinaldo, although no formal request has been made by the Timorese government to the International forces to halt current operations (http://bulletin.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=264317&print=true). This move is seen as a political manoeuvre and a move to win the support of Fernando Lasama whose PD party support Alfredo. However it is unproven as to how much influence Alfredo has had in this election so far, it is obviously a gamble that exemplifies Horta’s inconsistencies and inability during the crisis to finding a universally accepted solution to the prevailing issues.
What has certainly been pleasing is the balanced International media reporting coming from Timor Leste. During the crisis and the first round of elections the media were overly critical of the FRETILIN leadership and shied away from reporting criticisms pointed towards Horta. Where Ramos Horta enjoyed a literal monopoly of the International media in the first round of Presidential elections, the second round has seen more consistency where reporting favouring Horta and LuOlo are both published.
An important part of the election campaign was the debate between Horta and LuOlo. Those following the TVTL televised debate were surprised at LuOlo outperforming Ramos Horta. It was also surprising that Horta called a press conference straight after the debate and attacked FRETILIN possibly trying counter obvious gains made by LuOlo in the debate. Horta is well known in Timor Leste for his short temper.
Because of Horta’s reliance on the other candidates he will be compromised and will be expected to work within the interests of the other candidates and political parties if elected President. Whereas LuOlo being a senior member of FRETILIN will have more leverage to carry out his works independently.
There is no denying Horta is favoured to win the elections but there would be no surprise if LuOlo ends up being the next President of Timor Leste.
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